DXY clearing 107 is a meaningful technical development. Historically this level correlates with EM currency pressure and commodity headwinds. Gold is holding better than expected — real rates are the key variable. Watch copper and oil for confirmation of the dollar squeeze imp...

The Fed minutes showed more hawkish undercurrents than the March statement. Multiple members flagged services inflation as sticky — shelter and super-core PCE are not cooperating. Rate cut expectations for September are at risk. Treasury curve pricing looks complacent if the F...

JPMorgan reports Q3 next week. The setup: NII tailwind from higher-for-longer rates running into a provision headwind from commercial real estate exposure. Consensus is at $4.01 EPS. If provision expense comes in below $1.8B, JPM likely beats. Watch for Dimon commentary on cre...

SPY is within 1.2% of the resistance cluster at $545-$548 that has rejected three prior attempts. Market breadth narrowing (S&P 500 equal-weight lagging cap-weight by 4.3% YTD). A clean breakout with breadth participation is bullish. A rejection here opens up a re-test of $510...

With the 10Y at 4.2% and the Fed dots moving dovish, duration trades are back on the table. TLT at current levels offers asymmetric upside if we get 150bps of cuts by end-2025. The risk: stickier core PCE forces a pause. Sizing accordingly with 40% conviction.