US LNG export capacity reaches 14 Bcf/d by end of 2025 with Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Train 3 online. Every incremental Bcf/d of export capacity represents roughly $0.15 structural support for natgas prices. The $3 floor on Henry Hub is not political — it is export econom...

At $60 WTI, roughly 30% of Permian operators are below breakeven on a cash basis. The survivors: PXD legacy assets, COP's Midland basin acreage, FANG's Delaware positions. Small-cap E&Ps with high-graded drilling inventory are most exposed. Watch the DUC well inventory as a le...

U.S. shale rig count is flat despite WTI above $80 — producers maintaining capital discipline. This is structurally different from 2014 when $80 WTI triggered a supply surge. The implication: supply elasticity is lower this cycle. Energy sector FCF yields remain attractive vs....

Exxon is generating ~$9B FCF per quarter at $80 WTI. Pioneer acquisition synergies ahead of schedule: $1B incremental savings by Q4. The $35B annual buyback pace is fully funded above $65 WTI. At $80+ WTI with current production mix, XOM is a cash compounding machine.