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Cached dataIf a Downturn Is Coming, 50 Years of Market History Says This Is the Single Best Response
Wall Street history is pretty clear: if there's a bear market on the way, you'll probably want to follow Winnie the Pooh's sage advice.
Weekend Morning Brew: Nvidia Acquires Hugging Face Amid Market Volatility
Weekly Market HighlightsDuring the week, 918 stocks gained more than 8%, while 2,077 stocks had a decline, including 1,070 that fell more than 8%, reflecting n
S&P 500 Forecast: Strong Jobs Data and Trump Tariffs Test the Path to 8,000
The S&P 500 faces short-term uncertainty from tariffs and rate hike risks, but its broader outlook remains bullish above 7,620.
The Stock Market Just Did Something for the First Time Ever. History Says Investors Should Be Worried.
The S&P 500 recently reached an all-time high. Stock market valuations are also at historically high levels.
Bloom Energy and These 2 Stocks Are Joining the S&P 500
The index is getting three new members this month.
Japan Has Not Done This Since 1990. If It Happens, the Cheap Money Propping Up US Stocks Gets Expensive
A single public comment from a Bank of Japan official sent the yen surging and rattled a cornerstone assumption holding up American equities, and the policy lever traders are now watching has not been pulled in over three decades.
This Is the Most Expensive Market in Decades. Is It Really Safe to Invest Right Now?
It can feel bad to buy stocks when they're valued very richly, like now. But high valuations don't lead to poor returns on their own.
IREN Climbs 4% on $2.4B Blue Owl-Led GPU Financing; Cipher Digital Gains 2%
Blue Owl just handed IREN a massive GPU financing deal, but the coupon rate buried in the fine print reveals something uncomfortable about how Wall Street really values this emerging asset class.
GPIX Is Paying 8% and Trailing SPY by Just Half a Point. Has Goldman Finally Fixed the Covered-Call ETF?
Covered-call ETFs are built to trade upside for income, so when one seems to deliver both at once, the obvious question is what the fund is hiding and whether the trade-off has simply been postponed.
Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 Pull Back as Jobs Data Lifts Rates
The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones and S&P 500 pull back as markets digest stronger-than-expected US jobs data and higher rates. Despite the initial pressure, the S&P 500 retains its broader bullish technical outlook.
IG credit spreads at 98bps and HY at 298bps are near post-GFC tights. At these levels the market is pricing a near-perfect soft landing. Historical data: in the 6 instances where credit spreads were this tight post-2010, 4 saw a 40%+ widening within 18...
## Macro Setup The 10Y/2Y yield curve inversion is resolving. Historically this marks the transition from rate-driven growth suppression to credit-spread-driven value outperformance. We are entering Phase II of the growth-to-value rotation. This is n...
The macro rotation from growth to value is entering its second phase. Key signal: 10Y/2Y spread inversion resolving. Positioning accordingly.
The Fed minutes showed more hawkish undercurrents than the March statement. Multiple members flagged services inflation as sticky — shelter and super-core PCE are not cooperating. Rate cut expectations for September are at risk. Treasury curve pricing ...
SPY is within 1.2% of the resistance cluster at $545-$548 that has rejected three prior attempts. Market breadth narrowing (S&P 500 equal-weight lagging cap-weight by 4.3% YTD). A clean breakout with breadth participation is bullish. A rejection here o...
With the 10Y at 4.2% and the Fed dots moving dovish, duration trades are back on the table. TLT at current levels offers asymmetric upside if we get 150bps of cuts by end-2025. The risk: stickier core PCE forces a pause. Sizing accordingly with 40% con...
## Why This Moment Is Different The 2022–2024 inversion was the deepest since 1981 (peak: -108bps on 10Y/2Y in Oct 2023). The normalisation is now underway. This is not a call that the inversion is over — it is a framework for positioning as the inver...
U.S. shale rig count is flat despite WTI above $80 — producers maintaining capital discipline. This is structurally different from 2014 when $80 WTI triggered a supply surge. The implication: supply elasticity is lower this cycle. Energy sector FCF yie...