Jul 14
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Research Note
Jul 14 · 1 min read
IG credit spreads at 98bps and HY at 298bps are near post-GFC tights. At these levels the market is pricing a near-perfect soft landing. Historical data: in the 6 instances where credit spreads were this tight post-2010, 4 saw a 40%+ widening within 18 months. Not a base case, but tail risk is underpriced.
Sources: Industrials Are Up 17% and Still Catching the Next Wave of AI Money
Author's Disclosure: Position not disclosed (published before October 2026).
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Jul 14 · 1 min read
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